TY - JOUR
T1 - Instantaneous R for COVID-19 in Turkey
T2 - Estimation by Bayesian Statistical Inference
AU - Şenel, Kerem
AU - Özdinç, Mesut
AU - Öztürkcan, Selcen
AU - Akgül, Ahmet
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 by Türkiye Klinikleri.
Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - The instantaneous R in Turkey is estimated by Bayesian statistical inference that utilizes a 68-days-long dataset from the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey for monitoring the progression of the pandemic. As it is also globally adapted, enforced social distancing measures help to keep the instantaneous reproduction number below one. The low levels of instantaneous R are referred to as a basis for several countries to relax their country-wide restrictions, while hindsight involves a possible second wave of infections to follow in China, Germany, and South Korea. Thus, policy and decision-makers need to be vigilant regarding the pandemic's progress. It is not yet sure if it is possible to maintain the instantaneous reproduction number below one, especially at the lack of societal measures.
AB - The instantaneous R in Turkey is estimated by Bayesian statistical inference that utilizes a 68-days-long dataset from the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey for monitoring the progression of the pandemic. As it is also globally adapted, enforced social distancing measures help to keep the instantaneous reproduction number below one. The low levels of instantaneous R are referred to as a basis for several countries to relax their country-wide restrictions, while hindsight involves a possible second wave of infections to follow in China, Germany, and South Korea. Thus, policy and decision-makers need to be vigilant regarding the pandemic's progress. It is not yet sure if it is possible to maintain the instantaneous reproduction number below one, especially at the lack of societal measures.
KW - Bayesian statistical inference
KW - Coronavirus
KW - COVID-19
KW - Epidemic models
KW - EpiEstim
KW - Turkey
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85086657118&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.5336/medsci.2020-76462
DO - 10.5336/medsci.2020-76462
M3 - Editorial
AN - SCOPUS:85086657118
SN - 1300-0292
VL - 40
SP - 127
EP - 131
JO - Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Medical Sciences
JF - Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Medical Sciences
IS - 2
ER -