High-Throughput Molecular Dynamics-Based Alchemical Free Energy Calculations for Predicting the Binding Free Energy Change Associated with the Selected Omicron Mutations in the Spike Receptor-Binding Domain of SARS-CoV-2

The ongoing pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has gone through various phases. Since the initial outbreak, the virus has mutated several times, with some lineages showing even stronger infectivity and faster spread than the original virus. Among all the variants, omicron is currently classified as a variant of concern (VOC) by the World Health Organization, as the previously circulating variants have been replaced by it. In this work, we have focused on the mutations observed in omicron sub lineages BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5, particularly at the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein that is responsible for the interactions with the host ACE2 receptor and binding of antibodies. Studying such mutations is particularly important for understanding the viral infectivity, spread of the disease and for tracking the escape routes of this virus from antibodies. Molecular dynamics (MD) based alchemical free energy calculations have been shown to be very accurate in predicting the free energy change, due to a mutation that could have a deleterious or a stabilizing effect on either the protein itself or its binding affinity to another protein. Here, we investigated the significance of five spike RBD mutations on the stability of the spike protein binding to ACE2 by free energy calculations using high throughput MD simulations. For comparison, we also used conventional MD simulations combined with a Molecular Mechanics-Generalized Born Surface Area (MM-GBSA) based approach, and compared our results with the available experimental data. Overall, the alchemical free energy calculations performed far better than the MM-GBSA approach in predicting the individual impact of the mutations. When considering the experimental variation, the alchemical free energy method was able to produce a relatively accurate prediction for N501Y, the mutant that has previously been reported to increase the binding affinity to hACE2. On the other hand, the other individual mutations seem not to have a significant effect on the spike RBD binding affinity towards hACE2.