A fuzzy approach to R&D project portfolio selection

Christer Carlsson, Fúller Robert, Markku Heikkilä, Majlender Péter

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikelVetenskapligPeer review

159 Citeringar (Scopus)

Sammanfattning

A major advance in the development of project selection tools came with the application of options reasoning in the field of Research and Development (R&D). The options approach to project evaluation seeks to correct the deficiencies of traditional methods of valuation through the recognition that managerial flexibility can bring significant value to projects. Our main concern is how to deal with non-statistical imprecision we encounter when judging or estimating future cash flows. In this paper, we develop a methodology for valuing options on R&D projects, when future cash flows are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In particular, we present a fuzzy mixed integer programming model for the R&D optimal portfolio selection problem, and discuss how our methodology can be used to build decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment.

OriginalspråkOdefinierat/okänt
Sidor (från-till)93–105
TidskriftInternational Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Volym44
Utgåva2
DOI
StatusPublicerad - 2007
MoE-publikationstypA1 Tidskriftsartikel-refererad

Nyckelord

  • Real option valuation
  • Fuzzy numbers

Citera det här