Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era

Yukie Ikezumi; Mikkel Stein Knudsen; Jari Kaivo-oja

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26

Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era

Yukie Ikezumi, Mikkel Stein Knudsen^*, Jari Kaivo-oja

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceeding › Published conference proceeding › Scientific › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The paper explores plausible scenarios for the business environment of mobile network operators (MNOs) after the eventual rollout of 6G. The 6G era is characterized by multi-dimensional uncertainty, as neither the technology nor the business landscape is yet in place. However, futures research methods and scenarios help alleviate uncertainty and provide futures knowledge about plausible developments. Using environmental scanning and expert interviews, the paper presents four scenarios for MNOs based on the assumed rate of change for the sector (transformative vs. conservative) and the market success of the incumbents (continued rise vs. fall). Underneath the scenarios is a shared base of assumptions for which the experts converged; these assumptions of changing market configurations provide a useful synopsis of current expert consensus for 6G business futures.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Knowledge Management in Organisations - 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Proceedings
Editors	Lorna Uden, I-Hsien Ting, Birgit Feldmann
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages	334-346
Number of pages	13
ISBN (Print)	9783031079191
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26
Publication status	Published - 2022
Externally published	Yes
MoE publication type	A4 Article in a conference publication
Event	16th International Conference on Knowledge Management in Organisations, KMO 2022 - Hagen, Germany Duration: 11 Jul 2022 → 14 Jul 2022

Publication series

Name	Communications in Computer and Information Science
Volume	1593 CCIS
ISSN (Print)	1865-0929
ISSN (Electronic)	1865-0937

Conference

Conference	16th International Conference on Knowledge Management in Organisations, KMO 2022
Country/Territory	Germany
City	Hagen
Period	11/07/22 → 14/07/22

Funding

Acknowledgements. This study has received financial support from the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland [grant nos. 335980, 335989]. Professor, Dr. Jari Kaivo-oja gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) and the European Regional Development Fund implementing the project “Platforms of Big Data Foresight (PLATBIDAFO)” (project No. 01.2.2-LMT-K-718-02-0019).

Keywords

6G
Futures research
Knowledge management
Mobile network operators
Scenarios
Strategic foresight

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26

Cite this

Ikezumi, Y., Knudsen, M. S., & Kaivo-oja, J. (2022). Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era. In L. Uden, I.-H. Ting, & B. Feldmann (Eds.), Knowledge Management in Organisations - 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Proceedings (pp. 334-346). (Communications in Computer and Information Science; Vol. 1593 CCIS). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26

Ikezumi, Yukie ; Knudsen, Mikkel Stein ; Kaivo-oja, Jari. / Plausible 6G Futures : Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era. Knowledge Management in Organisations - 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Proceedings. editor / Lorna Uden ; I-Hsien Ting ; Birgit Feldmann. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022. pp. 334-346 (Communications in Computer and Information Science).

@inproceedings{67a8b7f21cf84b57bf71ad65a381de13,

title = "Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era",

abstract = "The paper explores plausible scenarios for the business environment of mobile network operators (MNOs) after the eventual rollout of 6G. The 6G era is characterized by multi-dimensional uncertainty, as neither the technology nor the business landscape is yet in place. However, futures research methods and scenarios help alleviate uncertainty and provide futures knowledge about plausible developments. Using environmental scanning and expert interviews, the paper presents four scenarios for MNOs based on the assumed rate of change for the sector (transformative vs. conservative) and the market success of the incumbents (continued rise vs. fall). Underneath the scenarios is a shared base of assumptions for which the experts converged; these assumptions of changing market configurations provide a useful synopsis of current expert consensus for 6G business futures.",

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author = "Yukie Ikezumi and Knudsen, \{Mikkel Stein\} and Jari Kaivo-oja",

note = "SKA INTA RAPPORTERAS (TY-PUBLIKATION) Funding Information: Acknowledgements. This study has received financial support from the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland [grant nos. 335980, 335989]. Professor, Dr. Jari Kaivo-oja gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) and the European Regional Development Fund implementing the project “Platforms of Big Data Foresight (PLATBIDAFO)” (project No. 01.2.2-LMT-K-718-02-0019). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.; 16th International Conference on Knowledge Management in Organisations, KMO 2022 ; Conference date: 11-07-2022 Through 14-07-2022",

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Ikezumi, Y, Knudsen, MS & Kaivo-oja, J 2022, Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era. in L Uden, I-H Ting & B Feldmann (eds), Knowledge Management in Organisations - 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Proceedings. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol. 1593 CCIS, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 334-346, 16th International Conference on Knowledge Management in Organisations, KMO 2022, Hagen, Germany, 11/07/22. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26

Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era. / Ikezumi, Yukie; Knudsen, Mikkel Stein; Kaivo-oja, Jari.
Knowledge Management in Organisations - 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Proceedings. ed. / Lorna Uden; I-Hsien Ting; Birgit Feldmann. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022. p. 334-346 (Communications in Computer and Information Science; Vol. 1593 CCIS).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Conference proceeding › Published conference proceeding › Scientific › peer-review

TY - GEN

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AU - Ikezumi, Yukie

AU - Knudsen, Mikkel Stein

AU - Kaivo-oja, Jari

N1 - SKA INTA RAPPORTERAS (TY-PUBLIKATION) Funding Information: Acknowledgements. This study has received financial support from the Strategic Research Council at the Academy of Finland [grant nos. 335980, 335989]. Professor, Dr. Jari Kaivo-oja gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT) and the European Regional Development Fund implementing the project “Platforms of Big Data Foresight (PLATBIDAFO)” (project No. 01.2.2-LMT-K-718-02-0019). Publisher Copyright: © 2022, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - The paper explores plausible scenarios for the business environment of mobile network operators (MNOs) after the eventual rollout of 6G. The 6G era is characterized by multi-dimensional uncertainty, as neither the technology nor the business landscape is yet in place. However, futures research methods and scenarios help alleviate uncertainty and provide futures knowledge about plausible developments. Using environmental scanning and expert interviews, the paper presents four scenarios for MNOs based on the assumed rate of change for the sector (transformative vs. conservative) and the market success of the incumbents (continued rise vs. fall). Underneath the scenarios is a shared base of assumptions for which the experts converged; these assumptions of changing market configurations provide a useful synopsis of current expert consensus for 6G business futures.

AB - The paper explores plausible scenarios for the business environment of mobile network operators (MNOs) after the eventual rollout of 6G. The 6G era is characterized by multi-dimensional uncertainty, as neither the technology nor the business landscape is yet in place. However, futures research methods and scenarios help alleviate uncertainty and provide futures knowledge about plausible developments. Using environmental scanning and expert interviews, the paper presents four scenarios for MNOs based on the assumed rate of change for the sector (transformative vs. conservative) and the market success of the incumbents (continued rise vs. fall). Underneath the scenarios is a shared base of assumptions for which the experts converged; these assumptions of changing market configurations provide a useful synopsis of current expert consensus for 6G business futures.

KW - 6G

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KW - Knowledge management

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KW - Scenarios

KW - Strategic foresight

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AN - SCOPUS:85135056872

SN - 9783031079191

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SP - 334

EP - 346

BT - Knowledge Management in Organisations - 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Proceedings

A2 - Uden, Lorna

A2 - Ting, I-Hsien

A2 - Feldmann, Birgit

PB - Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH

Y2 - 11 July 2022 through 14 July 2022

ER -

Ikezumi Y, Knudsen MS, Kaivo-oja J. Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era. In Uden L, Ting IH, Feldmann B, editors, Knowledge Management in Organisations - 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Proceedings. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2022. p. 334-346. (Communications in Computer and Information Science). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26

Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era

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