Patent-related decision-making with fuzzy real option analysis

Patent related decision making tasks are essentially equivalent to justifying investment opportunities, which requires the estimation of initial cost and potential future benefits and a valuation model that can effectively exploit them. This article reviews three conventional patent valuation models and identifies four major issues that hamper their applicability in realistic cases. It then proceeds to propose two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory and real option analysis, and advocate them as a solution to those issues. It will also be shown by examples how two fuzzy real option analysis based models could be utilized to facilitate the decision making problems encountered in patent application and patent commercialization.