On the Mabinogion urn model

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    Abstract

    In this paper we discuss the Mabinogion urn model introduced by Williams (1991). Therein he describes an optimal control problem where the objective is to maximize the expected final number of objects of one kind in the Mabinogion urn model. Our main contribution is formulae for the expected time to absorption and its asymptotic behaviour in the optimally controlled process. We also present results for the noncontrolled Mabinogion urn process and briefly analyze other strategies that become superior if a certain discount factor is included. 

    Original languageUndefined/Unknown
    Pages (from-to)327–346
    JournalAdvances in Applied Probability
    Volume50
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Keywords

    • Theory of optimal control
    • Urn models
    • Binomial identities
    • Markov chains
    • Hypergeometric functions

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