Instantaneous R for COVID-19 in Turkey: Estimation by Bayesian Statistical Inference

Kerem Şenel*, Mesut Özdinç, Selcen Öztürkcan, Ahmet Akgül

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalEditorialScientificpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


The instantaneous R in Turkey is estimated by Bayesian statistical inference that utilizes a 68-days-long dataset from the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey for monitoring the progression of the pandemic. As it is also globally adapted, enforced social distancing measures help to keep the instantaneous reproduction number below one. The low levels of instantaneous R are referred to as a basis for several countries to relax their country-wide restrictions, while hindsight involves a possible second wave of infections to follow in China, Germany, and South Korea. Thus, policy and decision-makers need to be vigilant regarding the pandemic's progress. It is not yet sure if it is possible to maintain the instantaneous reproduction number below one, especially at the lack of societal measures.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)127-131
Number of pages5
JournalTurkiye Klinikleri Journal of Medical Sciences
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2020
MoE publication typeB1 Article in a scientific magazine


  • Bayesian statistical inference
  • Coronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Epidemic models
  • EpiEstim
  • Turkey


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