Freshening and warming may restrict dispersal of Hemigrapsus takanoi into the Baltic Proper due to interactive effects on larval survival and feeding

Salinity is a common stressor restricting the distribution of various decapod crustaceans. The interactive effects of such regional stressors with global climate change drivers are important to be considered when aiming to realistically predict the potential of a species’ dispersal and further spread into new habitats. Within species, their larval stages commonly determine a species tolerance and with this their potential to invade and successfully develop a sustaining population. This laboratory study investigated the combined effect of salinity (6 levels, 10–25) and temperature (19 and 23 °C) on larval survival, development to megalopa, and feeding (in Zoea I, III, and V) of the decapod Hemigrapsus takanoi. Larval development and survival to megalopa were generally favored by increasing salinity. While no larva developed to the megalopa stage at 23 °C and a salinity of 16, in 19 °C some larvae could successfully develop under a salinity as low as 16. All larval stages fed generally more with increasing salinity and temperature, but there was no interaction between the two factors. The results revealed that the H. takanoi population from Kiel Fjord (southwestern Baltic Sea) is capable of completing its larval development under the current Kiel Fjord environmental conditions. The geographical spread of this H. takanoi population into the wider Baltic Proper may, however, be restricted mainly due to the inability to establish and maintain a self-sustaining population under lower salinity conditions. Furthermore, the projected desalination of the Baltic Sea together with rising temperatures due to global warming and heat waves in summer may likely exert additional stress to this existing population, unless H. takanoi adapts at appropriate rates.