On the Mabinogion urn model

A1 Originalartikel i en vetenskaplig tidskrift (referentgranskad)

Interna författare/redaktörer

Publikationens författare: David Stenlund
Förläggare: Cambridge University Press
Publiceringsår: 2018
Tidskrift: Advances in Applied Probability
Volym: 50
Nummer: 2
Artikelns första sida, sidnummer: 327
Artikelns sista sida, sidnummer: 346
eISSN: 1475-6064


In this paper we discuss the Mabinogion urn model introduced by Williams (1991). Therein he describes an optimal control problem where the objective is to maximize the expected final number of objects of one kind in the Mabinogion urn model. Our main contribution is formulae for the expected time to absorption and its asymptotic behaviour in the optimally controlled process. We also present results for the noncontrolled Mabinogion urn process and briefly analyze other strategies that become superior if a certain discount factor is included.


Binomial identities, Hypergeometric functions, Markov chains, Theory of optimal control, Urn models

Senast uppdaterad 2019-08-12 vid 02:38