Predicting offender home location in urban burglary series

A1 Journal article (refereed)

Internal Authors/Editors

Publication Details

List of Authors: Laukkanen M, Santtila P, Jern P, Sandnabba K
Publication year: 2008
Journal: Forensic Science International
Journal acronym: Forensic Sci Int
Volume number: 176
Issue number: 2-3
Start page: 224
End page: 235
ISSN: 1872-6283


Residential location of a criminal can be predicted statistically [M. Laukkanen, P. Santtila, Predicting the home location of a serial commercial robber, Forensic Sci. Int. 157 (2006) 71-82]. Examined were: accuracy of the technique for urban burglary series, correlations between way of committing burglary and distance and use of those correlations in enhancing prediction accuracy.
78 residential burglary series from Greater Helsinki area, Finland. Series for which the home location prediction was made was never part of the predicting model. Distances between home and crime-site were short (Mdn 3.88km; IQR=1.16-10.10km). Search area of a perpetrator could be limited to 1.95% (Mdn, IQR=0.64-18.70%) of the total study area. For series which conformed to Circle Hypothesis (45%), search area was 0.84% (Mdn, IQR=0.51-2.34%). Correlations between crime features and distance were found to enhance accuracy when features of series hinted short distance: sub-model limited search area to 0.19% (Mdn, IQR=0.07-0.65%).

Last updated on 2019-22-08 at 07:06