A fuzzy approach to R&D project portfolio selection

A1 Originalartikel i en vetenskaplig tidskrift (referentgranskad)


Interna författare/redaktörer


Publikationens författare: Carlsson Christer, Fúller Robert, Heikkilä Markku, Majlender Péter
Förläggare: Elsevier
Publiceringsår: 2007
Tidskrift: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Volym: 44
Nummer: 2
Artikelns första sida, sidnummer: 93
Artikelns sista sida, sidnummer: 105
eISSN: 1873-4731


Abstrakt

A major advance in the development of project selection tools came with the application of options reasoning in the field of Research and Development
(R&D). The options approach to project evaluation seeks to correct
the deficiencies of traditional methods of valuation through the
recognition that managerial flexibility can bring significant value to
projects. Our main concern is how to deal with non-statistical
imprecision we encounter when judging or estimating future cash flows.
In this paper, we develop a methodology for valuing options on R&D
projects, when future cash flows are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy
numbers. In particular, we present a fuzzy mixed integer programming
model for the R&D optimal portfolio selection problem, and discuss
how our methodology can be used to build decision support tools for
optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment.


Nyckelord

Fuzzy numbers, Real option valuation

Senast uppdaterad 2020-22-01 vid 04:53